Published in the Weather Journal, the new Met Office report details the rising likelihood of UK hot days. The study used a global climate model to create a large set of plausible climate outcomes in the current climate, allowing for the assessment of current risk and how extremes have changed over the last few decades.
The increasing likelihood of record UK summer temperatures underscores the need for people, businesses and organisations to prepare for even higher heat extremes in the near future. The first recorded temperature above 40°C was in July 2022 – which formed part of Europe’s warmest summer on record. There were significant impacts, including wildfires, disruptions to transport and power systems, and increased mortality.
“The chance of exceeding 40°C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising. We estimate a 50-50 chance of seeing a 40°C day again in the next 12 years. We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate,” explained lead author, Dr Gillian Kay, Senior Scientist at the Met Office.
In terms of the length of heatwaves, co-author Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office Science Fellow, said: “The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in southeast England. Our study finds that in today’s climate such conditions could persist for a month or more. These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.”
The Met Office is responsible for monitoring and modelling the UK’s climate, collecting weather and climate records, assessing how the UK’s climate may evolve in the future, and providing advice to manage climate-related risks. These resources are designed to help policymakers, researchers, and the public to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change.
